I’m on a plane right now and considering a hypothetical question: Given the physical constraints of reality, how much could the most loyal, most lucrative customers possibly spend with the airlines and hotel chains?

Tarmac transfer to a semi-private jet? Would you really want to spend those miles on MORE time in a plane or hotel? (Photo: commons.wikimedia.org)

As an aside, we’ll ignore meeting planning budgets since they can be all over the map and hotels have started segmenting those off to different programs.

Similarly, we’ll ignore food and beverage budgets for the sake of keeping the post to a reasonable length (though I suppose someone COULD order the $22,000 Diamonds are Forever Martini at the Ritz-Carlton Tokyo every time they pass through and expense it).

We also make some assumptions:

• This person actually has a day job, which presumably requires SOME time on the ground.
• This person is flying a route that actually makes logical sense for business (so no crazy backtracking) and has to be functional while on the ground
• This person is buying walk-up first class fares and doesn’t have access to comporate discounts. (This person would be a moron, but hey it’s not their money anyway)

How much could you possibly spend with an airline?

The biggest realistic spending case I can envision is someone who flies longhaul (over an ocean) roughly three times a week, roughly 5,000 miles each way every week of the year, paying $8-10k to fly international first class, on the same carrier/alliance every time (God help them).

For instance, a medical device salesperson could be flying every week from New York to Tokyo to London and back to New York on JAL, British Airways and AA, crediting to American.

Because this wouldn’t get old fast - Photo courtesy of gcmap.com

This would translate to roughly 150 flights per year. Even if they were buying walk-up tickets @ $10,000 a pop, this would translate to about $1.5M spent annually and 750,000 butt in seat miles.

If you assume top-tier status (which they would hit in early to mid-February - getting roughly a 100% redeemable mile bonus) and that they use a co-branded card with 3x on airline purchases, they would be earning 2.25 million from flying and 4.5 million miles from spending, generating 6.75 million redeemable miles in a year, not a bad haul.

That would get them 270 round trip domestic economy tickets (not that they’d ever have time to use them) and roughly 37.5 roundtrips in international first to India or the Middle East, 33 to Africa, or 16 round the world tickets in three cabin first (assuming 400,000 miles per ticket). Not that they’d have time to enjoy it.

Comparing that to the world of leasing a private jet (typically $5000-10,000 per hour) and international First Class is still a bargain.

Do hotels rake in anything remotely close to that?

For hotels, someone could be doing the following:

1. Staying in a hotel every weeknight of the year
2. Pay $700/night on average (typical rates for a nicer room at a Ritz Carlton, Mandarin Oriental or Four Seasons)

This would equate to 260 room nights in a year and $182,000 in spending, far less than you’d expect compared to the airline example above.

Assuming they get a 500 point bonus for every check in (assume they are a salesperson and check in a different hotel every night)+4 points per dollar for being top tier at Starwood and get 2 points per dollar for using the credit card, they would generate 130,000 from check-ins alone, 728,000 from spending at the hotel and 364,000 from the credit card bonus for a total of 1.222 million starpoints, enough for 40 nights at the most luxurious properties (20 at the nicest all-suite properties). Assume 5th night free and you’d get to 50/25 nights.

So for the top tier spenders on airlines, you’d likely have more miles than you’d be able to use in a lifetime, which on the hotel point front, you’d eke out just a few more than seven weeks at the nicest properties.

Do points and status even matter at those spending thresholds?

If someone is banking six million miles a year, the marginal value of those last few miles are likely to be close to zero, particularly given the constraints on using them, finding acceptable routings and availability. Standard/High Award rates are probably a given, and people typically in these situations are flying a lot of family members and friends around for free. Splurging on gifts at the mileage mall and experience auctions (golf lesson from a PGA Pro and Taylor Swift backstage passes for the grandkids probably win out over spending yet more time on a plane or hotel.

Likewise, the onboard services and suite upgrades would likely get old. Given the grueling schedule, I can imagine most of those customers go straight to sleep once on board and want minimum internaction unless it’s absolutely necessary. The caviar stays in the can.

Airlines and hotels (if they aren’t completely asleep at the wheel) would have targeted them for Concierge Key / Global Services / Royal Ambassador ages ago. Anecdotal reports from friends in the industry allude that these customers have the direct line to the VP or Director of Customer Care and while a few call them at the slightest inconvenience or irregular operation, most are so seasoned and accustomed to hiccups that they are practically unflappable. Many even lurk Flyertalk and Milepoint. Spending that much time onboard or as a guest means you see a lot, so only the most extreme circumstances are likely to actually upset you. Even when I was flying weekly for work, a 30 minute delay in the back of the plane was hardly noticed.

So while most of us will never dream of spending or flying at the level (and we may have some serious soul-searching and “what am I doing with my life” crises if we did) it’s a nice thought experiment to see how expectations may be very different for uber-mileage earners.

I hope you enjoyed that fun example! Have other ways of calculating MAX spend? Comment below!